Four banks published widely divergent price targets for Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, over five days, ranging from $38 per share for Morgan Stanley to $140 for Bernstein, while the stock closed at $62.61 on July 31. The valuation gap stems from conflicting assumptions about USDC supply growth and US interest rate levels over the next three years, amid a decline in circulation from $77 billion to $73 billion and a drop in reserve yields to 3.5%. Circle generated $694 million in revenue in Q1 2026, of which $652.5 million came solely from interest on its reserves. Growing competition from BlackRock’s tokenized money market funds, the upcoming Open USD stablecoin backed by a consortium of over 140 companies, and Hyperliquid’s dominant position holding 8% of USDC in circulation are weighing on the company’s outlook.
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