Prediction market traders assign only a 16% chance that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will mention the « bond market » and an 8% likelihood he will say « yield curve » during his Jackson Hole speech. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 5.3% last week, its highest level since June 2007, prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to double long-term debt buybacks to $4 billion. Traders anticipate a near 90% probability that he will say « inflation » and over 70% likelihood he will mention « task force, » but only an 8% chance he will reference a « rate cut. » Nearly 45% of economists surveyed by CNBC do not expect Warsh to hint at September’s decision, and 67% of traders forecast a 0.5% move on the S&P 500 following his address.
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