The Cboe Volatility Index’s VIX jumped from 16.6 to 28.2 on Thursday, its biggest one-day move since April 2025’s “Liberation” week for tariffs. According to Bespoke Investment Group, across the 19 episodes since 1990 in which the VIX rose by at least five points from below 20, the S&P 500’s median return was 4.2% after three months and 4.8% after six months. Returns were positive 68% and 79% of the time over those periods, respectively. In the short term, however, the average return was negative 0.4% one month after such episodes because of sharp declines that followed some volatility surges. Selling pressure on technology stocks was especially severe, with the Nasdaq 100 recording its worst day since March 2020, while traders continued to bet heavily on declines in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF before the opening bell, accounting for $1.5 billion of the $1.7 billion in options premium traded.
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