The United States has launched strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz following Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in this strategic area. This escalation marks a significant intensification of the ongoing US-Iran confrontation over control of one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of tensions, with both nations engaged in a tit-for-tat campaign involving maritime and aerial operations. Market participants currently price the probability of a US invasion of Iran at 15.5% before 2027.
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