The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on February 28, 2026, in operation Epic Fury, targeting Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and military infrastructure. A ceasefire took effect on April 8, followed by a June memorandum of understanding reaffirming Iran’s commitments to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the 2015 nuclear deal. The Strait of Hormuz, previously carrying approximately 20 million barrels per day, has seen flows collapse to 9-10 million barrels per day, representing a 10-11 million barrel shortfall that amounts to roughly 10% of global oil consumption. The durability of the June MOU remains the central question, as retained nuclear knowledge and material mean the underlying threat has not been eliminated, and the risk of miscalculation in the waterway stays elevated.
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