The United States has launched airstrikes against Iran, prompting retaliatory measures from Tehran and escalating the ongoing conflict between the two nations. This development has intensified regional tensions and affected global energy prices. Prediction markets show the likelihood of a full Iranian airspace closure by year-end has risen from 24% to 28% in just 24 hours. The probability of Iran targeting Ukraine remains low at 1.7%. The conflict could also impact President Trump’s domestic approval ratings.
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