Attacks on Black Sea shipping infrastructure have reduced Ukrainian grain exports to roughly 20% of normal levels, falling to 0.5 to 0.6 million tons per month versus the usual 7 million. Wheat prices have climbed approximately 24% since January 2026, reaching two- to three-year highs. The FAO forecasts global food prices could rise by 11.8% in 2026 if the conflict continues. The most exposed regions are the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia, which heavily depend on wheat imports from the Black Sea. Ukraine is sitting on 9 to 9.5 million tons of residual corn and wheat stocks, up from 7 million the previous year, volumes that could not be exported.
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