Donald Trump’s campaign against Iran is drawing comparisons to U.S. military interventions post-9/11, combining military threats with economic pressure reminiscent of tactics used in Afghanistan and Iraq. Markets reflect reduced optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran deal by 2026, with odds for a deal including reconstruction funding now at 11.5% YES, down from 12% a day earlier. This approach suggests a prolonged confrontation rather than a swift resolution. Observers are monitoring diplomatic negotiations, statements from U.S. Chief Negotiator Mike Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, as well as mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan.
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