Donald Trump’s declining popularity is strengthening Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race. Recent polling indicates a tight contest between Republican incumbent Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews. Trump’s momentum after winning the state by nearly 18 points in 2024 may therefore not be enough to deliver Graham a decisive victory. Market-implied odds of a 5% to 10% Republican victory have fallen from 39% to 21%, while the probability of a Democratic win stands at 30%. Final polling, turnout data and last-minute interventions by Trump and both campaigns will be decisive.
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