Polymarket currently assigns a 75% probability to Democrats winning both the House and the Senate in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are contested, with Democrats needing to gain three and four seats respectively to secure majorities. The estimate reflects a significant shift from the narrow Republican majorities and a reduced likelihood that the Republican Party will retain control. Election results in swing states and announcements by major political figures could further change market probabilities as voting unfolds.
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