The Trump administration is conducting an intense pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve to prevent an interest rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting, mobilizing the president, Vice President JD Vance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and economic advisor Peter Navarro. Trump on Friday threatened to halt trade with countries running surpluses with the United States if the Fed does not cut rates, an unprecedented threat. Markets are now pricing in approximately a 60% probability of a rate hike following the meeting, bolstered by a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Friday will be critical in determining whether the Fed hikes or holds.
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