The U.S. Treasury held about $1.016 trillion at the Federal Reserve on Oct. 28, roughly $166 billion above its August cash-balance assumption. Its Nov. 2 and Nov. 4 releases will update borrowing plans, the year-end cash target and buyback plans, all of which shape bank reserves and short-term funding conditions. An actual drawdown from the Treasury General Account, combined with stabilizing reserves and calmer repo markets, could ease funding conditions for Bitcoin. Bitcoin traded at about $77,865 on Nov. 2 and would also need sustained inflows into investment products and stronger spot buying to confirm the easing thesis.
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