On Friday, October 30, 2026, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.3 million in net outflows, their heaviest single day since June 25. The sell-off followed the $6.3 billion hack of Binance on Thursday evening. Despite the scale of the incident, analysts see limited direct impact on the funds, whose underlying assets are not held at the exchange.
🔑 Key takeaways
- Net outflows of $643.3M on October 30, the largest daily figure since June 25
- First full trading session after the $6.3B theft, attributed by the FBI to North Korean hackers
- A four-day inflow streak ($440.8M) snapped; weekly balance down to -$202.6M
- BlackRock’s IBIT captured 93.1% of net inflows over the streak
- Analysts frame the move as a sentiment shock, not an institutional capitulation
An outflow that ends a four-day inflow streak
The streak from Monday, October 26 through Thursday, October 29 totaled $440.8 million. According to Farside Investors, funds took in $110.3 million on Monday, $176 million on Tuesday, $137.3 million on Wednesday and $17.2 million on Thursday. Thursday’s inflows were therefore roughly 87.5% below Wednesday’s. The slowdown preceded the hack: the attack began around 4:05 p.m. Eastern, after US markets closed, and the main outflows from Binance wallets were observed late on October 29 UTC. Friday’s reaction was not included in the $440.8 million.
The table below summarizes daily net flows for the period.
| Date (2026) | Net flow ($M) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| October 22 | -635.6 | First day of withdrawals |
| October 23 | -137.9 | Second day of withdrawals |
| October 26 | +110.3 | Start of the inflow streak |
| October 27 | +176.0 | Largest inflow of the streak |
| October 28 | +137.3 | Inflows before the hack |
| October 29 | +17.2 | Thursday, attack after US close |
| October 30 | -643.3 | First full session after the hack |
The weekly balance as of October 30 stood at roughly -$202.6 million, and October’s month-to-date total at about -$516 million. The week of October 19 to 23 had closed positive at $301.2 million, helped by $526.7 million of inflows on Monday and $524.8 million on Wednesday. The two outflow sessions of October 22 and 23, totaling $773.5 million, were only about 57% offset by the subsequent streak.
BlackRock captures most of the positive flows
The inflows were concentrated in a single product. BlackRock’s IBIT took in $410.6 million over the four sessions, about 93.1% of the category’s net total, with $110.3 million on Monday, $151.5 million on Tuesday, $136 million on Wednesday and $12.8 million on Thursday. Fidelity’s FBTC received $35 million, Bitwise’s BITB $10.1 million and Morgan Stanley’s MSBT $4.2 million. These positive contributions, totaling $459.9 million, were partly offset by outflows of $15.3 million from the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust and $3.8 million from the WisdomTree BTCW.
| Fund | Net flow ($M) | Period and source |
|---|---|---|
| IBIT (BlackRock) | +410.6 | Oct 26-29, four sessions |
| FBTC (Fidelity) | +35.0 | Oct 26-29 |
| BITB (Bitwise) | +10.1 | Oct 26-29 |
| MSBT (Morgan Stanley) | +4.2 | Oct 26-29 |
| Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust | -15.3 | Oct 26-29 |
| WisdomTree BTCW | -3.8 | Oct 26-29 |
| IBIT (BlackRock) | -233.7 | Oct 30, CoinGlass |
Fund-level readings on October 30 vary by aggregator. CoinGlass identifies IBIT as the most-affected spot bitcoin fund, with $233.7 million of outflows, while Whale Alert cites Fidelity, IBIT and ARK 21Shares among the largest redemptions. The same CoinGlass table shows ETHA with $76.6 million of outflows and BSOL with $9.3 million, while XRPZ logged $5.57 million of inflows. Over the 30 calendar days ending October 26, net flows remained negative by $254.7 million: IBIT had attracted $961.9 million, while FBTC had shed $725 million.
Binance: a sentiment shock, not direct exposure
The hack has been described as the largest crypto theft to date. The attackers, identified by the FBI as North Korean hackers, drained roughly $6.3 billion from the exchange’s hot wallets. Another source puts the figure at $6.4 billion, a gap attributed to estimation or rounding. Binance says it has reserved more than $6.34 billion in equity, including $5 billion already held in the affected cryptocurrencies. Tether and Circle have frozen more than $2.3 billion of stolen stablecoins. After withdrawals resumed on Sunday, the platform recorded about $3.64 billion of net outflows over the following nine and a half hours. Some Wall Street banks and institutions also advised clients to buy crypto-linked securities during the market weakness.
“Spot ETF holders have no direct exposure to Binance, since the underlying BTC is held with regulated custodians. In that context, an outflow of roughly $640 million is relatively modest compared with total ETF assets.”
Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst, ViaBTC
Ko describes the outflow as a “sentiment shock” and argues that bitcoin absorbed the hack resiliently, with attention now shifting to the US midterm elections.
Analysis: caution rather than capitulation
Rick Maeda, head of markets at Laevitas, reaches a similar conclusion.
“At scale, the $643 million outflow remains below 1% of spot BTC ETF assets. It was simply a day of risk reduction, not a capitulation or a loss of institutional confidence.”
Rick Maeda, Head of Markets, Laevitas
Drawing an analogy with the Bybit hack of Q1 2025, Maeda considers stabilization or modest outflows more likely than an immediate rebound, as long as the situation remains contained. Dominick John, analyst at Zeus Research, expects demand to stay cautious in the short term, with a lasting return of inflows depending on “improved market stability, restored liquidity and renewed investor confidence”. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 37 on Sunday, in fear territory, yet Maeda argues sentiment looks more like caution than fear.
Bitcoin fell about 4% on Friday to roughly $76,400, and more than $1.3 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. Crypto.news noted a dip below $77,000, with a low of $76,944 shortly after midnight UTC, before a recovery toward $78,000. The decline remained far smaller than the near 11% drop recorded during the 2018 attempted attack on Binance.
| Asset | Saturday price | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | about $77,520 | -3.3% |
| Ether (ETH) | about $2,251 | -3.9% |
| Solana (SOL) | about $96 | -4.5% |
On Sunday evening, The Block reported bitcoin up 1% over 24 hours at $78,491 and ether up 1.3% at $2,296. Total crypto market capitalization remained around $2.7 trillion. Markets have therefore stabilized without a decisive recovery, and remain sensitive to the US macro calendar.
Historical context and source discrepancies
According to CoinDesk, as of June 29, 2026, US spot bitcoin ETFs had already booked $4.06 billion in net outflows, on track to exceed the monthly record of $3.56 billion set in February 2025. The prior week had seen $1.79 billion in redemptions, the second-largest weekly outflow since the products launched in January 2024. CoinGlass ranks June 2026 as the weakest month in its coverage at -$4.98 billion, and July 2025 as the strongest at +$11.45 billion, figures that cover a broader set of products than US spot bitcoin ETFs alone. The decline contradicted expectations of renewed demand after SpaceX’s IPO on June 12.
Sources do not agree on every indicator. Assets under management for bitcoin ETFs are reported at $103.2 billion by Yahoo Finance, $98.14 billion by The Block and $96.83 billion by CoinGlass, and the supplied documents do not explain the gap. For the October 30 outflow, CoinGlass measures $643.2 million, against $643.3 million in the other sources, a difference of one-tenth of a million dollars attributable to rounding or methodology.
Outlook and scenarios
In the near term, the central scenario among the analysts cited is flow stabilization, with modest outflows rather than a clear rebound. The relative size of the redemption, below 1% of ETF assets, and the separation between fund holdings and the affected exchange limit direct risk for regulated products. Still, the $643.3 million figure remains the largest daily withdrawal since late June.
Three factors will shape what comes next: the restoration of market liquidity, Binance’s ability to honor its coverage commitments, and the US political calendar. A return of sustained inflows into IBIT and FBTC would signal renewed institutional confidence. Conversely, a fresh wave of redemptions tied to contagion or tighter macro conditions would revive the scenario of a market under pressure. These scenarios are indicative and do not constitute a forecast.
Sources
Cet article est publié à titre informatif et éducatif. Il ne constitue en aucun cas un conseil en investissement. Faites vos propres recherches (DYOR) avant toute décision.
