The U.S. bond market is acting as a tightening force on financial conditions, with the 10-year yield jumping 120 basis points since February. This rise could slow the economy enough that the Federal Reserve may not need to raise its policy rate. Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, recommends that investors closely monitor the performance of financials through the XLF ETF and bond market volatility. These two indicators are considered the best leading signals for stocks.
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