India’s inflation rose to 5.54% in September, a 22-month high, up from 4.82% in August and above economists’ expectations of 5.40%. The Reserve Bank of India raised interest rates for the first time since 2023 and said further rate cuts were off the table in the near term. HSBC economists expect another rate hike in December. This inflation surge comes amid the Middle East conflict, India’s heavy reliance on energy imports, and the Super El Niño, which caused the lowest rainfall in over a decade, threatening key farming regions.
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