The Marist poll conducted among 1,139 registered voters reveals an unexpected situation in Texas’s 2026 elections. Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race with 50% versus 44%, a margin exceeding the poll’s error. For the governor’s seat, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads by only three points (49% versus 46%) against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a statistically tied gap. Prediction markets reflect this increased competitiveness, assigning a 19% probability to a Democratic victory in the governor’s race. These results suggest a potential shift in this traditionally Republican stronghold, where demographic changes and heightened voter engagement could play a decisive role.
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