According to a CNBC analysis covering 1980 through 2024, the S&P 500 rose an average of 0.2% one day and one week after presidential and midterm elections, then gained 1.1% after one month. One year later, its average gain was 13.7% following midterms and 13.8% following presidential elections, with positive returns in 91% of cases. Markets generally performed best when power was divided: the index gained an average of 15% over one year when no single party controlled both the presidency and Congress, compared with 11.5% under unified government. History nevertheless includes exceptions, notably a 22.1% decline after the 2000 elections because of the dot-com bust and a record 38.3% gain after the 2020 elections. The Federal Reserve, corporate earnings, the artificial intelligence boom, geopolitics and bond markets remain the main factors likely to influence market performance.
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