On October 22, 1.3 billion SpaceX shares will become eligible for sale, representing approximately $194.3 billion at the October 20 closing price of $147.89. Aave Labs has proposed accepting the tokenized shares, designated SPCXc, as collateral on its V4 Equities Hub, with a 55% collateral factor, a maximum 6.5% liquidation bonus and a cap of 37,000 tokens worth about $5.47 million. LlamaRisk estimates SpaceX’s annualized volatility at 81.4% and models a 41% off-hours decline, a scenario that, combined with thin onchain liquidity, could make liquidations difficult to execute. If 10% of the unlocked shares were sold, trading would exceed average daily volume by 144%, while a 30% decline would make a $400 loan against $1,000 of collateral liquidatable.
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