The Southern Armed Forces have announced the repositioning of troops from Dhu Bab Airport and the Bab al-Mandab area in western Taiz Governorate. This reorganization, following an October offensive aimed at securing the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, shifts the focus towards defending Aden and neighboring governorates. However, the withdrawal could create a power vacuum, enable Houthi forces to advance and increase the likelihood of an entry into Aden. Markets have reflected a 15% increase in the perceived probability of such an advance, with the odds of a Houthi entry into Aden by December 31, 2026, rising slightly to 11.5%. Observers will monitor military movements and possible diplomatic developments involving Saudi Arabia and regional actors.
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