According to the AARP Public Policy Institute, Social Security could have paid full benefits until 2059 if its taxable payroll had maintained its 1983 share of 41% of GDP, 25 years beyond the projected depletion date of 2034. That share fell to 34% in 2025 because income has shifted toward business and investment income, automation has reduced demand for workers, and more income is reported through pass-through businesses. The report also attributes the program’s funding challenges to an aging population and a declining worker-to-beneficiary ratio, which is projected to fall from 3.4 in 2000 to 2.4 in 2030. AARP suggests raising or eliminating the taxable payroll cap, set to rise from $184,500 in 2026 to $192,300 in 2027, and taxing investment income currently exempt from payroll taxes. These measures could help reduce the funding gap, but AARP opposes cuts to monthly benefits.
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