An analysis of 135 forecasts published over a decade by fifteen institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Teneo and the IMF, found that only 16% identified the event that later moved markets. Just three forecasts explained how that event would reach a portfolio. The year-end S&P 500 targets performed worse than a coin flip, with gains expected in 2022 when the index fell 19% and excessive pessimism in 2023 when it rose 24%. These annual outlooks, often lacking probabilities, deadlines and quantified consequences, can still influence trillions of dollars allocated by pension funds, endowments and 401(k) plans. The article compares this absence of scorekeeping with the rise of passive funds, whose transparent benchmarks helped expose underperformance, and calls for 2027 forecasts that specify the event to watch, its likely investment impact and the relevant date.
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