Russian military strikes have targeted Kyiv, its surrounding region, and the port of Chornomorsk, according to Russia’s Defence Ministry. This escalation of military aggression has caused prediction markets to lower the probability of Ukraine recapturing Crimea by the end of 2026, dropping from 6% to 5.5%. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows no Ukrainian-controlled areas in Crimea, confirming the absence of significant Ukrainian advances in the peninsula. The positions of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin remain key factors in the unfolding situation.
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