Polymarket’s pricing dashboard assigns a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting. The no-change scenario carries a 39% probability, while larger rate hikes and any rate cuts remain below 1% each. Earlier readings from September 8 showed odds of 49% on Polymarket, 48% on Kalshi, and approximately 56% on CME FedWatch. These elevated odds followed an August wholesale-price report and U.S. crude oil prices rising above $100 per barrel. CNBC also reported that CME FedWatch gauged the chance of a rate increase at 70% on September 10.
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