Russian President Vladimir Putin met with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Moscow to discuss challenges surrounding a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Markets now price a 27.5% likelihood of a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, up significantly from 18% just one day prior. Outlook for an October 31, 2026 ceasefire remains more cautious at 17.5% YES. Putin’s remarks appear to signal ongoing difficulties, with core issues of the conflict remaining contested despite high-level diplomatic engagement.
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