U.S. oil prices have risen back above $100 per barrel, pushing gasoline prices to multi-month highs. On the prediction market platform Kalshi, traders assign a 71% probability that the national average will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026, a 57% chance it will surpass $4.80, and just over 40% odds it will cross $5.00. The U.S. record high for gas prices, slightly above $5 per gallon, was set in June 2022. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are raising concerns about the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil supply route, supporting crude prices above $103 per barrel.
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