Czech intelligence chief Michal Koudelka has warned that Russia could test NATO through limited incursion, drone activity, false-flag provocations, or an influence campaign on a timeline of months rather than years. This warning has revived interest in Polymarket’s NATO x Russia military clash contract, which resolves on whether a military encounter occurred between Russian forces and NATO member forces during a 2025 window. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is among the officials warning that limited strikes or false-flag operations remain possible in the coming months as the war in Ukraine grinds on. NATO’s senior generals have affirmed regional defense plans and force readiness in response. Traders need to distinguish between a limited test of NATO’s resolve and a full-scale invasion, as these are materially different events.
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