Polymarket’s odds for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026 have dropped to 13%, down from 40% the previous day. The nearer-dated October 31 contract shows a 7% implied probability. These figures reflect the likelihood of a qualifying ceasefire in effect for at least 10 calendar days, a materially higher bar than a diplomatic announcement alone. The market reports approximately $1.8 million in volume, $327,300 in liquidity, and $621,390 in open interest. The renewal of the EU’s individual sanctions through September 15 represents a key near-term policy test for Western cohesion and diplomatic room for negotiations.
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