Polymarket traders currently assign a 37% probability to the Federal Reserve raising rates at its October 27-28, 2026 meeting, with a 61% likelihood of no change. Trading volume on this market has exceeded $17 million. At its September 15-16, 2026 meeting, the committee raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. Polymarket pricing closely aligns with CME fed funds futures and rival prediction platform Kalshi. The key variable between now and late October will be incoming economic data, particularly inflation and employment figures.
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