Prediction market Polymarket assigns a 22% probability that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed by December 31, 2026. The strait, which normally handles roughly 12% of global trade, has seen daily ship transits drop to about 15 vessels, a 40-60% decline from pre-crisis levels. In September 2026, Houthi forces captured the strategic port of Mokha, Perim Island, and the Hanish islands, gaining direct oversight of the shipping lane. Total volume across related Polymarket contracts ranges from $5 million to $14 million, indicating serious commercial interest in pricing this geopolitical risk. A closure would force ships to reroute around Africa, adding 10 to 14 days to voyages.
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