Since Aug. 14, Polymarket has used 60-second time-weighted averages to determine the opening and settlement prices of its five-minute Bitcoin markets. A study by Guangzhe Wang covering 82,752 price boundaries on Binance found that the share of volume traded during the final ten seconds fell from 5.68% under the previous single-snapshot settlement rule to 3.02% with the 60-second average, compared with 3.05% before the contracts launched. The first three weeks of the new regime showed neither systematic migration of volume into earlier time intervals nor a recurrence of the previously observed near-strike reversal pattern. This decline in a trading spike does not measure current wallet losses or the net profitability of strategies, which must account for Bitcoin trades and execution costs. The estimated $8.2 million historically earned by 821 wallets relates to earlier periods and cannot be applied directly to the new settlement rule.
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