On September 15, 2026, the U.S. Senate rejected the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act with a cloture vote of 49-50, well short of the 60-vote threshold needed to advance. Polymarket had dropped its odds from 82% in February to roughly 25-28% just before the vote, illustrating how prediction markets tend to underestimate the structural difficulty of Senate cloture procedures. The bill, which passed the House on July 17, 2025, by a 294-134 margin, failed to clear the Senate Banking Committee. This failure leaves crypto regulation in limbo, with the SEC and CFTC continuing to contest jurisdictional boundaries over digital assets. The stablecoin yield question, one of the bill’s key sticking points, also remains unresolved.
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