Polymarket placed the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October at 23% with $43 million traded, while CME FedWatch pricing ranged from approximately 37% to 44%. Bitcoin fell below $82,000 following inflation data that came in above expectations, with the September consumer price index rising 3.7% year over year, above the 3.6% consensus. Core inflation registered at 2.6% annually and 0.3% month over month, both exceeding forecasts. The market still prices a December rate hike at 79% on Polymarket, suggesting that any October hold would represent a delay rather than a change in the expected tightening path. Ether also declined roughly 3% to near $2,430.
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