Former U.S. President Donald Trump is intensifying his criticism of Iran amid a stalemate in nuclear negotiations. This geopolitical escalation has pushed oil prices higher as markets price in potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 has decreased to 2.2%, down from 3% the previous day. By December 31, the probability stands at 13.5%, up slightly from 12% a week ago. Analysts are closely watching OPEC’s response and developments in U.S.-Iran relations.
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