Moscow is intensifying its confrontational rhetoric, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov playing a central role in this campaign. This verbal escalation coincides with prediction markets pricing in an increased likelihood of Russian military advances in Ukraine. Odds on these markets reflect particular attention to a potential Russian entry into Sloviansk by December 31, 2026. This pressure strategy appears aimed more at maintaining tension than seeking de-escalation, with the conflict having begun with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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