On-chain analyst Willy Woo suggests Bitcoin may abandon its historical four-year cycle for a six-to-eight-year cycle, increasingly aligned with the debt and liquidity conditions of traditional financial markets. After the April 2024 halving, new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% per year, with the next halving in early 2028 set to reduce it to roughly 0.4%. US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold approximately 1.3 million BTC, representing over 6% of the circulating supply, while public companies holding at least 1,000 BTC own over one million units. Together, these two categories control nearly 12% of circulating BTC, far more than miners produce annually. Galaxy Research concluded in June that the four-year cycle remains visible in the data, but each cycle is becoming less extreme, with past bear markets producing drawdowns of 85%, 84%, and 77% compared to approximately 53% for the July trough.
Source: Read the original article
