Morgan Stanley estimates Bitcoin’s $2.2 trillion market cap represents roughly 2% penetration into a $130 trillion addressable market combining global M2 money supply and gold. The bank projects annualized returns ranging from 3% under conservative assumptions to nearly 10% if adoption accelerates over the next decade, with intermediate scenarios of 6.4% to 9.8% depending on user growth rates. Approximately 95% of Bitcoin’s total 21 million coin cap will be issued by early 2026, with supply growth projected to slow to 0.8% in 2026 following the halving cycle. Morgan Stanley launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (ticker MSBT), a spot Bitcoin ETF, on April 8, 2026, providing wealth management clients with direct exposure to Bitcoin. The bank notes Bitcoin’s relatively low correlation with traditional asset classes but warns of sensitivity to global liquidity cycles and persistent regulatory uncertainty across jurisdictions.
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