Brazil s presidential election first round takes place Sunday, pitting 80-year-old leftist Lula against 45-year-old right-winger Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. A runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate reaches 50%. Prediction markets favor Bolsonaro at 60% versus 39% for Lula. Brazil s public debt stands at 81.9% of GDP, requiring a 3 to 3.5% fiscal adjustment. If Bolsonaro wins, JPMorgan expects the MSCI Brazil to gain 21% to 41%, a rally in bonds, and the real strengthening to 4.90 versus the dollar, compared to 5.50 should Lula win.
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