Western officials have reported that the Kremlin is conducting a hybrid warfare campaign designed to undermine European support for Ukraine. This strategy involves tactics such as cyberattacks and drone incursions, aimed at destabilizing European nations without engaging in direct military conflict with NATO. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began with Russia’s 2022 invasion, remains high-intensity with no ceasefire in sight. Prediction markets show a 22% probability of Russian presence in Sloviansk by December 31, 2026, with odds also available for other Ukrainian cities such as Sumy. This hybrid warfare approach is described by Western officials as a calculated measure by Russia to erode European resolve without triggering direct confrontation.
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