On October 28, four Kalshi Senate contracts cost $3.02 before fees for a conditional gross payout of $3. Senate control could be confirmed early through media calls, while the seat-count contracts relied on the chamber’s composition on February 1, 2027, exposing the hedge to non-aligned outcomes. Both aligned scenarios produced a two-cent loss before fees, while divergent resolutions could yield a $2 or $4 payout. Displayed quantities were uneven, fees and collateral-return settings affected execution and committed capital, and no orders were executed; Talos’s historical model only identified a theoretical edge across 51 quoted days under specific execution assumptions.
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