Traders on Kalshi have sharply reduced their expectations of an official Anthropic initial public offering announcement before December 1, 2026, with the probability now estimated at 57 to 61 %. The estimate was previously close to 90% in late October, before the lack of confirmation during the expected window sent the contract lower. The market still assigns a 69 to 70% probability of an announcement before January 1, 2027, suggesting mainly a delay rather than an abandonment. Trading volume on the relevant contracts has exceeded $4.9 million. Anthropic reportedly filed Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission on October 26, 2026, with a planned Nasdaq listing under the ticker “ANT,” but rumored valuations of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion remain above its latest private valuation of $965 billion.
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