JPMorgan strategists are anticipating a potential reversal from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), the trend-following funds holding massive short positions in Treasuries, toward large-scale buying as the 10-year US Treasury yield approaches the psychologically critical level of 5 percent. Bank of America has described CTAs as « heavily short » 10-year bonds, with the largest short exposure observed in recent months. The 10-year yield was trading around 4.63 percent at the time of the article, and JPMorgan forecasts fluctuation between 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent through mid-2026, with a year-end estimate of 4.70 percent. Despite a possible short-term rally driven by CTA flows, the structural US fiscal trajectory continues to exert persistent upward pressure on yields.
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