An Iran missile attack on the US Azraq base in Jordan caused oil prices to rebound, erasing the previous day’s losses in just minutes. Before the rebound, Brent stood at $83.75 and WTI at $78.55, both having dropped around 17% over the past three days. This geopolitical incident in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. The probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30 remains low at 4.8%, but rises to 12.5% by December 31. Market participants will closely monitor geopolitical developments involving Iran and US interests, as well as statements from OPEC and IEA officials.
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