Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until several conditions are met, including lifting the blockade and releasing frozen assets. This position, expressed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is intensifying the current deadlock in the U.S.-Iran conflict over control of this strategic chokepoint. Market sentiment reflects this hardening stance, with YES odds for reopening before the August 31 deadline dropping from 24% to 8%. The next two weeks will be critical in determining the outcome of this high-risk maritime crisis.
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