The conflict involving Iran has disrupted supply chains, driving up natural gas prices and, consequently, the cost of nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia. These price increases are extending beyond agriculture and beginning to influence broader energy markets, including crude oil pricing. Prediction markets show only a 1.8% probability of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30, down from 3% the previous day. However, this probability stands at 11% by December 31, reflecting market sentiment that significant catalysts may emerge later in the year. OPEC and the International Energy Agency could play a pivotal role in shaping these markets.
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