Inflation contracts on Polymarket show a 100% probability that US inflation will remain above 3% in 2026. April 2026 CPI reached 3.8% year-over-year, a three-year high driven largely by rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions. The probability of inflation exceeding 4% stands at 59%, while odds for inflation above 5% range between 13% and 28%. Fed Governor Michael Barr warned that rate hikes are possible if inflation does not trend back toward the 2% target by September 2026, with traders pricing a 71-72% probability of at least one rate hike during the year.
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