The House of Representatives is set to vote today on an impeachment resolution against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, introduced by Representative Thomas Massie. The resolution accuses Hegseth of high crimes and misdemeanors, including alleged violations of the War Powers Resolution through military operations in Iran, Yemen, and Venezuela. Prediction markets now assign a 77.8% probability that Hegseth will be impeached by December 31, 2026, up from 74% 24 hours ago. The likelihood that he will leave his post by November 30 remains substantially lower at 19%, as conviction in the Senate would require a two-thirds majority. The vote will be a key indicator of potential Republican defections in the majority-controlled chamber.
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