A pre-release Bitcoin options analysis estimated a 2.5% move, approximately $1,884, during the window containing the November 10 US inflation report. The study reported 3,183 BTC in long liquidations, worth approximately $245 million, on November 5, followed by 2,450 BTC, worth approximately $181 million, on November 8. Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility was 33.7, compared with 40 for Deribit’s DVOL index covering the next 30 days, leaving a 6.3-point gap. These measures are neither live quotes nor reproducible protection prices, and the analysis did not establish whether buying protection was cheap. They also provide no directional forecast, as Deribit allows for Bitcoin moves both upward and downward.
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