Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried out a strike on a village in southern Lebanon after intercepting a drone from Lebanon over Israeli territory. The retaliation was reported by a Hezbollah-affiliated outlet, the Iran-backed group. The incident is part of a broader conflict involving cross-border exchanges and ground operations by Israel in southern Lebanon since March 2026. Despite ceasefire efforts, hostilities continue between both sides. Markets price the probability of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by August 31, 2026, at nearly zero (0.1%), and at only 7.5% by December 31, 2026.
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