The shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline threatens to worsen crude supply scarcity for Asia’s four biggest importers. Dependence varies by country: South Korea imports 34.1% of its oil from Saudi Arabia, Japan 27.3%, China 14.9% and India 10.2%. Experts estimate between 3.5 and 4.5 million barrels per day are at risk, potentially representing a loss of 120 million barrels over one month. Stocks currently held at Yanbu and Egypt could sustain exports for one to two weeks, but any replacement shipments from the Americas or West Africa would take over a month to arrive. The immediate impact is expected to be felt in higher costs rather than physical shortages, with widening premiums on medium-sour grades and increased freight rates.
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