Goldman Sachs has projected an 85% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 15-16, 2026. The current effective federal funds rate stands at 3.63%, within the target range of 3.50%-3.75%. A rate hike would adjust the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Market analyst Albert Edwards criticized this potential decision, calling it « criminally stupid. » The probability of a pause in upcoming Fed meetings has significantly decreased, reflecting a broader market consensus toward a tighter monetary policy.
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